Rural-Urban Differences in the Impact of a Medicare Opioid Safety Policy on Beneficiaries with Disabilities

A 2019 Medicare opioid safety policy limited initial opioid duration to 7 days and long-term daily dosage to 90 morphine milligram equivalence (MME). Because effective pain management may vary by rurality, this study examined whether the policy differentially affected opioid prescribing among rural versus urban beneficiaries with disabilities.

Deidentified claims data was used to gather a rolling cohort of Medicare Advantage beneficiaries with disabilities ages 18 to 64 from 2016 to 2021. Comparative interrupted time series were used in 2025 to analyze rural-urban differences in the duration and dosages of opioid fills for new-to-opioid beneficiaries, the target of the 7-day limit (N = 526,019 person-months), and the number of high-dosage episodes for long-term opioid beneficiaries, the target of the 90-MME limit (N = 3,312,161 person-months).

Despite significant reductions in initial opioid duration for both groups, the 7-day limit effect on initial opioid duration weakened over time (trend change: 0.17 [98.75% CI 0.04 to 0.30]) in the rural relative to the urban group. By the end of the study period, the rural group experienced 3.8 percentage points more initial opioid fills exceeding the 7-day limit (95% CI 0.4 to 7.3) than the urban group. Furthermore, the total dosage prescribed in subsequent fills among rural beneficiaries was 27.97 MME (95% CI -52.19 to -3.75) less than urban beneficiaries by the end of the study period. The rural and urban groups responded similarly to the 90-MME limitation.

Rural relative to urban new-to-opioid beneficiaries with disabilities experienced a weakened effect on initial opioid duration after Medicare's 7-day limit, while receiving declining dosage in follow-up opioid fills, suggesting potential disparities in access to follow-up opioid prescriptions for rural versus urban beneficiaries with disabilities. Policymakers may consider more flexible opioid regulations and attention to alternative pain management for rural Medicare beneficiaries.