Examining the Effects of Raw Material and Product Prices on the Payback Time and Net Present Value for the Cumene...

Throughout history, adverse events that have caused global economic crises, such as war, pandemics, global warming, and climate change, have led to fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, coal, and other energy commodities. These fluctuations directly drive price volatility in various chemical products derived from crude oil distillation. This work aims to simultaneously use SuperPro Designer and central composite optimization to optimize payback time and net present value (NPV), based on raw material and product prices, in the cumene production process (CPP). The reduced cubic response surface and 2FI models explain all variations in payback time and NPV at the applied price scale, and analysis of variance for both models was significant. The R-squared, adjusted R-squared, and predicted R-squared values for both models were well above acceptable levels, indicating excellent generalization and confirming the models' suitability for estimating payback time and NPV across varying price scenarios. The dual interactions between benzene-cumene and propylene-cumene prices create a synergistic effect. The results show that as raw material prices rise, the payback time increases; however, this synergistic effect reduces it as the cumene selling price rises. The total capital investment and operating costs of the CPP are 9.88 and 96.41 million USD, respectively, for a production capacity of 89,000 MT/year. Moreover, the hypothetical payback time, NPV, and cumene production cost are 2.8 years, 29.383 million USD, and 1090 USD/MT, respectively, based on the same production rate. In addition to the techno-economic analysis of the CPP, the combined use of design and optimization programs adds value to this study. It provides notable insights for investors, process engineers, and researchers.