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Nomogram-Based Independent Risk Factor Analysis and Recurrence Prediction for Chronic Subdural Hematoma After Single
Xu Zeng1, Fengkun Ji2, Yue Sun3
1The Seventh Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing, China.
Turkish Neurosurgery
|August 1, 2026
Summary
Researchers identified key risk factors for chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) recurrence and developed a predictive scoring system. This tool aids clinicians in managing high-risk CSDH patients more effectively.
Area of Science:
- Neurosurgery
- Clinical Neurology
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) poses a significant challenge due to potential recurrence.
- Effective prediction of CSDH recurrence is crucial for optimal patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify independent risk factors associated with CSDH recurrence.
- To develop and validate a predictive scoring system for CSDH recurrence.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 279 CSDH patients (2010-2020).
- Univariate and logistic regression for risk factor identification.
- Nomogram-based risk-scoring model development and ROC curve analysis for validation.
Main Results:
- Significant differences observed in GOS, brain re-expansion, atorvastatin use, hematoma characteristics, trauma history, diabetes, and midline shift between recurrent and non-recurrent CSDH.
- A nomogram-based scoring system was developed, showing significantly higher scores in recurrent CSDH patients (P<0.001).
- The scoring system demonstrated good predictive efficacy (sensitivity: 70.5%, specificity: 45.9%).
Conclusions:
- A validated scoring system for predicting postoperative CSDH recurrence has been established.
- This predictor tool can assist clinicians in enhanced monitoring and management of high-risk CSDH patients.
