[Prediction of dynamics of suitable producing areas for Ophiopogon japonicus under human activities and climate...

This study employed an ensemble species distribution model Biomod2 integrated with ArcGIS spatial analysis and utilized climate, soil, and human footprint data to predict the potential suitable habitats for Ophiopogon japonicus under various scenarios and to assess the key drivers governing its distribution. RESULTS:: revealed that mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality, and human footprint were the primary factors determining its distribution. When anthropogenic disturbances were excluded, the area of highly suitable habitats expanded significantly, extending notably into regions such as Guizhou, Chongqing, and Jiangsu. Under a low carbon emission scenario, the suitable habitat area showed a trend of gradual increase followed by stabilization. In contrast, under a high emission scenario, it contracted substantially and exhibited increased spatial fragmentation. In short, human activities and climate change had a significant impact on the suitable producing areas for O. japonicus. The findings provided an important scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of key producing areas, the long-term preservation of germplasm resources, and the sustainable development of the O. japonicus industry. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that the ensemble modeling approach enhanced the scientific validity and robustness of producing area predictions, offering valuable insights for optimizing future habitat planning and adaptive management strategies of O. japonicus.