[Multi Model Study and Clinical Decision Analysis of Early Death Risk Warning in Patients with Newly Diagnosed...

To retrospectively analyze the early death of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) treated with daratumumab, build a risk warning model and verify its clinical decision-making benefits.

The clinical data of 112 NDMM patients treated with daratumumab combination therapy in Tangshan Gongren Hospital from June 2018 to June 2022 were retrospectively collected as the training set, and the clinical data of 78 NDMM patients who received daratumumab combination therapy in the same period were collected as the validation set. According to whether early death occurred during regular follow-up (OS <24 months), the patients were divided into early death group (26 cases) and non-early death group (86 cases). The differences of clinical data between the two groups were analyzed, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to analyze the survival difference of patients with different efficacy. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting early death of NDMM patients treated with daratumumab. A warning nomogram model for the risk of early death was established, and the predictive performance was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and verified internally.

According to whether the efficacy of daratumumab treatment achieved partial response (PR), the patients were divided into χ²=14.225, P <0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that older age, R-ISS stage Ⅲ, elevated hs-CRP, and efficacy P <0.05), and a nomogram model for early death risk in NDMM patients was constructed. ROC analysis and DeLong test showed that the AUC of the nomogram model was 0.894(95%CI : 0.828-0.959), which was higher than that of each individual model, and the differences were statistically significant (all P <0.05). Internal and external validation showed that the nomogram model was stable and had a positive net benefit.

The OS of NDMM patients who did not reach PR after daratumumab treatment can be affected. Daratumumab treatment early death risk warning model for NDMM has good efficacy, and can be targeted at high-risk population for intensive treatment to improve prognosis.