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Updated: Aug 5, 2026
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Drug Repurposing Hypothesis Generation Using the "RE:fine Drugs" System
Published on: December 11, 2016
Highly Novel Drugs Outperformed Less Novel Drugs In Gross And Net Revenues In The US, Driven Primarily By
Boshen Jiao1, Ian S Haworth2, Darius N Lakdawalla3
1Boshen Jiao, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California.
Health Affairs (Project Hope)
|August 3, 2026
Summary
US pharmaceutical markets began rewarding highly novel drugs more than incremental ones around 2013. This shift, driven by increased prescription volume, coincided with pharmacy benefit managers
Area of Science:
- Pharmaceutical Market Analysis
- Drug Economics
- Pharmacology
Background:
- The differential market reward for novel versus follow-on therapies in the US pharmaceutical sector is not well understood.
- Assessing the economic value of pharmacological novelty requires analyzing drug revenues alongside novelty metrics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether US pharmaceutical markets provide greater revenue rewards for novel therapies compared to incremental follow-on drugs.
- To examine trends in prescription drug revenues based on molecular structure, therapeutic target, and delivery properties.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of branded small-molecule drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2000 and 2019.
- Utilized ChEMBL database for pharmacological novelty measures and linked to Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for utilization and spending.
- Estimated rebate-adjusted net revenues using SSR Health data.
Main Results:
- From 2013 onwards, gross and net revenues increased disproportionately for drugs with high molecular, target, or delivery novelty.
- Mean gross revenues more than tripled for drugs with high molecular or target novelty and more than doubled for high delivery novelty drugs (2013-2019).
- Revenue increases were driven by higher prescription volumes, not elevated prices.
Conclusions:
- US pharmaceutical markets show an increasing revenue return for pharmacological novelty, particularly after 2013.
- The expansion of pharmacy benefit managers' formulary exclusion policies may have contributed to this trend by limiting drugs with close substitutes.
- Market returns appear to favor drugs with distinct pharmacological properties over incremental innovations.
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