Pacing Prescription Through Critical Speed Modeling for 1500-m Rowing at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games

The reduction of race distance from 2000 to 1500 m for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games will require rowers to produce greater mean power output (MPO). However, current evidence suggests athletes are not achieving the ∼6% increase anticipated for medal-level performance. This study examined how pacing strategy influenced 1500-m time-trial (TT1500) performance.

Thirty-three (11 females) under-23 international rowers completed maximal 2000-m (TT2000) and 500-m (TT500) trials, and 3 TT1500 trials with different pacing strategies (unprescribed, even, and fast start) on separate days. Individual critical speed models, derived from TT2000 and TT500, were used to predict maximal TT1500 MPO (POREF) and prescribe power targets for the first 1000 m of the even and fast-start TT1500. Performance and physiological measures were compared using repeated-measures mixed-effect modeling.

Rowers adopted similar reverse-J pacing profiles in TT2000 and unprescribed TT1500. Predicted POREF values equaled ∼104% of TT2000 MPO. Despite significant differences in pacing variance, TT1500 MPO did not differ between TT1500 trials or from POREF (P = .271). All pacing strategies enabled a sprint finish, with MPO in the final 250 m representing 104% to 106% POREF.

International rowers currently rely on familiar 2000-m pacing patterns when racing over 1500 m. Pacing prescriptions for the first 1000 m, derived from critical speed modeling, did not influence performance, with all strategies permitting a sprint finish. Greater first 1000 m output, through alternative pacing, may be required to maximize use of physiological capacities for optimal 1500-m performance.