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Published on: January 28, 2020
Pacing Prescription Through Critical Speed Modeling for 1500-m Rowing at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games
Daniel J Astridge1,2, Peter Peeling1,2, Paul S R Goods2,3,4
1School of Human Sciences (Sport and Exercise Sciences),University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.
International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance
|August 3, 2026
Summary
Rowers racing the shorter 1500m distance in the Olympics are not increasing their power output as expected. Current pacing strategies do not improve 1500m time-trial performance, suggesting a need for new approaches.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Rowing Performance
Background:
- The 2028 Olympic Games will shorten the rowing race distance from 2000m to 1500m.
- This change necessitates a higher mean power output (MPO) from athletes.
- Current data indicates athletes are not achieving the required MPO increase for elite performance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of pacing strategies on 1500m time-trial (TT1500) performance in elite rowers.
- To determine if prescribed pacing influences TT1500 MPO compared to unprescribed or familiar 2000m pacing.
Main Methods:
- Thirty-three under-23 international rowers (11 female) completed maximal 2000m (TT2000), 500m (TT500), and three TT1500 trials with varied pacing.
- Critical speed models derived from TT2000 and TT500 predicted maximal TT1500 MPO (POREF).
- Pacing strategies included unprescribed, even, and fast-start, with power targets for the first 1000m of the latter two.
Main Results:
- Rowers exhibited similar reverse-J pacing in TT2000 and unprescribed TT1500.
- TT1500 MPO did not differ significantly between pacing strategies or from predicted POREF.
- All strategies allowed for a sprint finish, with final 250m MPO at 104-106% of POREF.
Conclusions:
- International rowers currently utilize 2000m pacing patterns for 1500m races.
- Pacing prescriptions based on critical speed modeling did not enhance 1500m performance.
- Alternative pacing strategies focusing on greater initial 1000m output may be necessary to optimize 1500m rowing performance.
