Education level, working life expectancy and expected working years lost: a study using Swedish registry data

The aim of this study is to investigate educational differences in labour market participation expressed by working life expectancy and working years lost due to various labour market states among men and women.

This study used a random sample of 100 000 individuals from the Swedish register-based Swedish Work Illness and labour market Participation cohort, including individuals born 1945-1975 (aged 30-60 in 2005). The multistate expected labour market affiliation method was applied to estimate working life expectancy and expected working years lost due to unemployment, sickness absence, other non-work, disability pension, early old-age pension and death from 2006 to 2020 or until age 65. Education was categorised as ≤9 years, 10-11 years, 12 years, 13-14 years and ≥15 years ranging from compulsory education only to university education.

Those with lower educational attainment could expect substantially shorter remaining working lives than those with higher educational attainment. At age 30, the difference between the highest and lowest educational groups was 5.6 years for men and 8.9 years for women. A clear educational gradient was observed for expected time in unemployment and disability pension, with lower education associated with more time in these states. This pattern was less clear for sickness absence, other non-work, early old-age pension and death.

Shorter working lives after age 30 among those with lower educational attainment highlight marked inequalities in labour market participation. This has both immediate and long-term consequences for individuals which can in turn lead to reduced income and possibly poorer health.