Multimodal MRI prediction of cognitive functioning across the lifespan: separating between-person differences from
Kseniia Konopkina1, Irina Buianova2, Farzane Lal Khakpoor2
1Department of Psychology, University of Otago, William James Building, 275 Leith Walk, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand. ksen.kon41@gmail.com.
Geroscience
|August 4, 2026
Summary
Brain MRI can predict cognitive function, excelling at identifying stable differences between individuals rather than tracking changes over time. Combining multiple MRI types offers the highest prediction accuracy for cognitive aging.
Area of Science:
- Neuroimaging
- Cognitive Neuroscience
- Gerontology
Background:
- Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) holds potential for predicting cognitive functioning.
- Its effectiveness hinges on distinguishing stable individual differences versus tracking within-person changes over time.
Purpose of the Study:
- To benchmark the predictive utility of five MRI modalities for cognitive functioning.
- To assess the capacity of MRI markers to capture between-person differences and within-person changes in cognition.
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal data from 450 adults (aged 21-90) were analyzed across three time waves.
- Five MRI modalities (task fMRI, functional connectivity, sMRI, DWI, ASL) were evaluated against 37 cognitive phenotypes.
- Variance decomposition and commonality analysis were employed to assess marker contributions.
Main Results:
- A combined MRI marker achieved the highest prediction accuracy for cognitive functioning (R² = .51), followed by DWI and FC.
- MRI markers explained significant between-person variance (up to 60.3%) but limited within-person changes (up to 17.2%) in cognition.
- Most MRI markers, excluding ASL, showed overlap with age-related cognitive variance.
Conclusions:
- Brain MRI markers are more effective for patient stratification based on stable differences than for monitoring longitudinal cognitive changes.
- The findings clarify the utility of various MRI techniques in understanding cognitive aging processes.
- Future research should consider the differential strengths of MRI modalities for clinical applications.
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