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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Transitions between persistent climate-carbon regimes coincide with elevated Phanerozoic biosphere vulnerability
Ivan Sudakow1,2, Corinne Myers3, Andrej Spiridonov4
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK. ivan.sudakow@open.ac.uk.
Nature Communications
|August 4, 2026
Summary
This study identifies five major climate-carbon system states over the Phanerozoic. Major climate transitions correlate with heightened biosphere vulnerability, explaining past extinction events.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Paleontology
- Geochemistry
Background:
- Quantifying links between abiotic factors and biotic responses over geologic time is challenging due to data heterogeneity and uncertainty.
- Previous studies often struggle to integrate climate dynamics with biological evolutionary patterns across the Phanerozoic.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a regime-based framework for understanding Phanerozoic climate-carbon system dynamics.
- To identify recurring climate states and their transitions.
- To assess the impact of these climate dynamics on biosphere vulnerability.
Main Methods:
- Utilized recurrence diagnostics on carbon and oxygen stable isotope records.
- Applied early-warning indicators to identify climate-carbon system states and boundaries.
- Developed a conceptual climate-carbon cycle model with multiple equilibria.
- Integrated a biosphere vulnerability metric based on biotic turnover and global diversity.
Main Results:
- Identified five persistent climate-carbon regimes and their sharp transitions over the Phanerozoic.
- The conceptual model explains state changes as switches between stable attractors.
- Biosphere vulnerability, measured by biotic turnover and diversity, is systematically elevated near major regime transitions.
Conclusions:
- Phanerozoic climate evolution is characterized by distinct, long-lived mega-climate states.
- Transitions between these climate states provide a dynamical context for periods of heightened biospheric stress and extinction.
- This framework offers a mechanistic explanation for major biotic crises linked to climate shifts.
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