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Nomogram for Predicting Myopia Risk in Chinese Children and Adolescents Aged 5-19 Years - 10 PLADs, China 2020-2024
Keke Liu1,2, Ran Qin2, Huijuan Luo2
1School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
China CDC Weekly
|August 5, 2026
Summary
This study identified key factors influencing childhood myopia, developing a nomogram to predict myopia risk in children and adolescents for early intervention. This tool aids in identifying high-risk individuals for personalized eye care strategies.
Area of Science:
- Ophthalmology
- Public Health
- Pediatrics
Background:
- Myopia prevalence is increasing globally in children and adolescents.
- Early identification of risk factors is crucial for timely intervention.
- Predictive models can aid in stratifying risk for personalized care.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify determinants of myopia in children and adolescents.
- To develop a predictive nomogram for myopia risk identification.
- To support early intervention strategies for myopia.
Main Methods:
- Stratified cluster random sampling of 32,075 students aged 5-19 years across 10 PLADs.
- Multilevel logistic regression to identify myopia predictors from demographic, behavioral, and environmental data.
- Nomogram construction following TRIPOD guidelines, with performance evaluated by ROC curves, AUC, calibration plots, and DCA.
Main Results:
- Myopia prevalence was 29.49%.
- Significant predictors included sex, screen time, reading habits, eye exercise frequency, and parental myopia.
- The nomogram showed strong predictive ability (AUCs 0.80-0.81) and clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomogram effectively identifies children at high risk for myopia.
- It supports personalized risk stratification and targeted early intervention.
- This tool can aid public health initiatives in myopia prevention and management.
