A Generalizable Tool for Predicting Developmental Phenology for Wild Ecotherms

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Physiology

Background:

• Development in poikilothermic (cold-blooded) organisms is highly sensitive to temperature, especially in early life stages.
• Traditional phenology models struggle with variable natural temperature fluctuations, limiting their accuracy for wild populations.
• Effective value models integrate diel (daily) temperature data to predict developmental timing under fluctuating conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To expand the R package hatchR, originally for fishes, to a broader range of poikilothermic taxa.
• To demonstrate the utility of the hatchR framework for both applied conservation and basic ecological/evolutionary research.
• To provide a generalizable, open-source tool for predicting developmental phenology in diverse and changing environments.

Main Methods:

• Operationalizing the effective value model within the R package hatchR.
• Testing and demonstrating hatchR's applicability across amphibians, reptiles, insects, crustaceans, copepods, and starfishes.
• Illustrating the framework's support for applied management (e.g., predicting hatching windows) and basic research (e.g., phenological plasticity).

Main Results:

• The hatchR package successfully extends the effective value model's application beyond fishes to diverse poikilothermic taxa.
• The framework provides a robust platform for predicting developmental phenology under variable thermal regimes.
• hatchR bridges the gap between physiological theory and practical application in ecological studies.

Conclusions:

• The generalized hatchR framework offers a powerful, open-source tool for predicting developmental timing in a wide array of cold-blooded organisms.
• This tool supports critical conservation efforts and advances our understanding of phenological responses to environmental change.
• hatchR facilitates the integration of physiological principles into ecological and evolutionary research.