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Attention to heterogeneous information sources affects epidemic outcomes
Jiayu Li1,2, Matthew Cheung1,2, Marcela Ordorica Arango3
1Program in Applied & Computati-onal Mathematics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540.
Summary
Understanding disease spread requires knowing how information sources influence behavior. This study models two groups, finding that strategic information sharing can minimize infection levels, but may create conflicts between groups.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- Disease transmission is closely linked to human behavior and risk perception.
- Existing research often focuses on well-mixed or networked populations but less on how information sources affect disease awareness and outcomes.
- Understanding how individuals perceive and react to epidemic information is crucial for effective public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how the choice of information source (own group vs. other group) impacts epidemic outcomes using a mathematical model.
- To explore the dynamics of disease awareness and its effect on infection levels in interacting populations.
- To identify optimal strategies for minimizing infection based on information access.
Main Methods:
- Development of a mathematical model simulating two interacting groups with distinct information-seeking behaviors.
- Analysis of epidemic dynamics, including bifurcations from uniform to nonuniform endemic equilibria.
- Evaluation of infection levels based on different information source choices for each group.
Main Results:
- The choice of information source can lead to persistent differences in infection levels between groups.
- A group with low infection benefits from seeking information from a high-infection group, potentially overestimating risk.
- A group with high infection benefits from accessing only its own group's infection data, avoiding risk underestimation.
Conclusions:
- Promoting awareness of disease levels, beyond just observing preventive measures, is essential for epidemic control.
- Information-seeking strategies can be tailored to minimize individual group infections but may not optimize overall population health.
- Potential conflicts exist between strategies that benefit one group and those that benefit the total infection level of both groups.
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