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Updated: Aug 7, 2026

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
Covariance-based uncertainty analysis of reference equations of state
Howard Cheung1, Jérôme Frutiger2, Ian H Bell3
1Carbon Exchange (Hong Kong) Ltd., Shatin, Hong Kong.
This study introduces a new method for uncertainty analysis in equations of state (EOS). It quantifies property uncertainties, crucial for thermal process models, by analyzing parameter covariance for accurate confidence intervals.
Area of Science:
- Thermodynamics
- Chemical Engineering
- Physical Chemistry
Background:
- Accurate quantification of uncertainties in thermal process models is increasingly important.
- Existing equations of state (EOS) often lack reliable uncertainty reporting or underestimate them.
- Reliable uncertainty data is essential for robust process design and safety.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a robust methodology for uncertainty analysis of equations of state (EOS).
- To address the gap in literature regarding accurate uncertainty quantification for EOS properties.
- To provide insights into the impact of state points and phase behavior on property uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- A covariance-based methodology for uncertainty analysis using linear approximation.
- Calculation of 95% confidence intervals for EOS properties via parameter covariance matrix and linear error propagation.
- Application and validation of the methodology to a Helmholtz energy-based EOS for propane.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated a generalizable methodology applicable to any EOS without retraining.
- Showcased significant variations in uncertainties based on the state point.
- Identified substantially larger uncertainties for saturation properties compared to vapor properties due to Maxwell criteria.
Conclusions:
- The developed uncertainty analysis methodology provides valuable insights for EOS users and developers.
- Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable thermal process modeling.
- The methodology highlights the importance of considering state-dependent uncertainties and phase behavior in EOS applications.
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