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Intellectual Humility and Probabilistic Belief
Logan Nelson1, Kathryn McGregor1, Tania Lombrozo1
1Department of Psychology, Princeton University.
Cognitive Science
|August 6, 2026
Summary
Believing things probabilistically, rather than as certainties, is linked to greater intellectual humility (IH). This association was found for specific beliefs, suggesting probabilistic thinking may foster IH.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Cognitive Science
- Social Psychology
Background:
- Beliefs can be expressed as binary certainties or probabilistic estimations.
- Probabilistic beliefs inherently acknowledge uncertainty and fallibility, core components of intellectual humility (IH).
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between probabilistic belief expression and intellectual humility.
- To determine if probabilistic belief is linked to greater IH across different samples and belief types.
Main Methods:
- Two studies were conducted with student and nationally representative samples.
- Participants' trait-level and belief-specific IH were assessed.
- Beliefs were categorized as binary or probabilistic, controlling for belief extremity.
Main Results:
- No significant association was found between trait-level IH and probabilistic belief across participants.
- A significant positive association was found between belief-specific IH and probabilistic belief within participants.
- This association held for political and moral beliefs, even when controlling for belief extremity.
Conclusions:
- A distinction exists between binary and probabilistic belief systems.
- Probabilistic belief expression is associated with greater intellectual humility towards specific beliefs.
- Promoting probabilistic thinking may enhance intellectual humility in various domains, including politics and morality.
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