Bidirectional associations between psychological symptoms and event centrality in ongoing conflict: A longitudinal...

Traumatic events can evoke significant distress and shape personal and collective identities. In the context of single-event traumas, the relationship between posttraumatic symptoms (PTS) and event centrality (EC) has been found to be reciprocal. However, this dynamic remains unexplored in the context of ongoing conflicts. We examined the temporal dynamics between PTS and EC among Israeli civilians following the events of October 7, 2023.

We explored the bidirectional relationship between PTS and EC at 3, 7, 12, and 17 months after the conflict began. Participants (N = 464) completed measures of PTS and EC at each time point. Using the cross-lagged panel model and the random intercept cross-lagged panel model, we examined the cross-lagged associations between PTS and EC.

Our findings revealed a bidirectional and phase-sensitive association between PTS and EC. During the early phase (3-7 months), EC was associated with an increase in PTS, suggesting that the centrality of the event can exacerbate distress. In contrast, PTS was associated with an increase in EC during the midphase (7-12 months), suggesting that trauma-related distress may shape the degree to which individuals integrate trauma into their sense of self.

These results underscore a dynamic, time-sensitive interplay between distress and meaning-shaping processes. The ascription of centrality to traumatic events in an ongoing conflict may both reflect and amplify PTS. Incorporating identity and meaning-making processes into trauma models may enhance our understanding of coping mechanisms in protracted stress situations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).