Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis

The northern permafrost region, which stores double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, is vulnerable to accelerated warming. Methane emissions from thawing permafrost may eventually result in a climate-carbon feedback. Our analysis of atmospheric methane data shows that Siberian growing-season methane emissions have increased by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams of methane (TgCH₄) (5% per year) over the period 2010-2023. We reveal contrasting Siberian hydrological trends linked to high-pressure systems and distinct air-sea-land interactions. Warmer, drier conditions over eastern Siberia enhance fire-related emissions (0.7 ± 0.1 TgCH₄ year^-2), and wetter conditions over western Siberia promote wetland-related emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 TgCH₄ year^-2). Weakly nonlinear relationships between temperature maxima and emissions suggest that by 2050, higher Siberian emissions could offset about 20% of the global methane reduction required for climate targets, with eastern Siberia dominating the projected increase.