The Future of Patient Panel Size in Primary Care

Britz et al present an important contribution to the understanding of primary care capacity by identifying all Primary Care Physicians (PCPs) in one state and quantifying their patient panel sizes. Their findings, showing median panels between 1196 and 1290 patients, provide critical insight into how many individuals each PCP can realistically serve amid a national primary care shortage. This commentary explores emerging trends that may reshape how ideal panel size is defined in the future, particularly the increasing integration of non-physician providers, digital health platforms, and artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Technologies such as ambient dictation, automated order entry, and AI-driven patient messaging can reclaim valuable clinician time and help mitigate burnout, potentially allowing physicians to manage larger panels. Likewise, wearable sensors, virtual visits, and non-traditional care outlets such as retail clinics and urgent care centers offer additional opportunities to expand system-wide capacity. However, these efficiencies must be balanced against current capacity issues in primary care, including potential added monitoring workload, increasing complexity of patients, as well as currently over-burdened primary care practices due to administrative burden and high volumes of patient messaging. Future studies are needed to determine whether these innovations truly expand capacity or simply redistribute effort within the evolving ecosystem of primary care.