Looks that kill: Facial metrics and international conflict 1947-2010

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Political Science
• International Relations

Background:

• Leader aggression influences foreign policy decisions and military conflict initiation.
• Existing indicators of leader proclivities often lack broad spatial and temporal generalizability.
• Evolutionary psychology suggests facial morphology, like the facial width-to-height ratio (FWHR), may correlate with aggression.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between leaders' facial width-to-height ratio (FWHR) and their likelihood of initiating military conflict.
• To address limitations in spatial and temporal generalizability of previous measures of leader proclivities.
• To explore FWHR as an overlooked characteristic in international conflict research.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the facial width-to-height ratio (FWHR) as a measure of aggression.
• Conducted empirical analysis of over 1,700 leaders from 174 countries.
• Data collection spanned the post-World War II era, from 1947 to 2010.

Main Results:

• Leaders with a higher FWHR were significantly more likely to initiate military conflict compared to those with a lower FWHR.
• The association between higher FWHR and conflict initiation was particularly pronounced early in a leader's term.
• FWHR provided broad coverage across leaders and time periods.

Conclusions:

• Facial width-to-height ratio (FWHR) serves as a valid, broadly applicable indicator of leader aggression relevant to foreign policy.
• Leader facial morphology is a significant, yet underutilized, factor in understanding the initiation of international military conflicts.
• Future research should consider facial characteristics as potential predictors in foreign policy and conflict studies.