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Reported HIV/AIDS Case Rates and COVID-Era Surveillance Disruption in Indonesia, 2010-2024: A National Time-Series
1PHEOR-ID Lab, Pharmalethia, Sanggau, West Kalimantan, Indonesia.
Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH
|August 7, 2026
Summary
Indonesia
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Health Surveillance Systems
Background:
- Routine HIV/AIDS surveillance is crucial for program monitoring in low- and middle-income countries.
- Reported diagnoses are influenced by testing access, service continuity, and reporting completeness.
- Indonesia's annual reports provide data for analyzing program trends.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze national reported HIV and AIDS case rates in Indonesia from 2010-2024.
- To quantify deviations in reporting during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to pre-pandemic trends.
- To project future trends for reported surveillance indicators up to 2030.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 15 years of Indonesian Ministry of Health reports (2010-2024).
- Calculation of HIV and AIDS case rates per 100,000 population.
- Use of regression analysis to model pre-COVID, COVID disruption, and post-COVID periods, with scenario projections to 2030.
Main Results:
- Reported HIV cases rose from 21,591 (9.09/100,000) in 2010 to 63,707 (22.36/100,000) in 2024.
- Reported AIDS cases increased from 7,437 (3.13/100,000) to 21,536 (7.56/100,000) over the same period.
- Estimated HIV reporting deficits were 24.0% (2020) and 37.8% (2021); AIDS deficits were 9.0% (2020) and 39.3% (2021).
Conclusions:
- Indonesia experienced significant changes in reported HIV/AIDS rates between 2010-2024.
- The COVID-19 pandemic caused notable disruption to surveillance, followed by a post-pandemic rebound.
- Findings support improved HIV program monitoring and 2030 planning in Indonesia and similar settings.
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