Metabolomics-based predictive modelling links leaf metabolic profiles to floral traits in Camellia

The genus Camellia comprises more than 200 evergreen species of major economic and ornamental importance, characterised by high morphological and chemical diversity. While several species have been extensively studied for their bioactive compounds, the metabolic basis of floral trait variation across the genus remains poorly understood. In this study, a predictive metabolomics framework was applied to investigate the relationship between leaf metabolic profiles and floral traits, focusing on flower colour and floral form. Leaves from 315 individual trees, including 15 Camellia species and representing 1,224 samples, were analysed by untargeted metabolomics, generating a large-scale metabolic profiling dataset. A dedicated quality control strategy was implemented to ensure analytical stability across multiple injection series and flowering seasons. Penalised generalised linear models were used to uncover robust metabolic predictors associated with floral traits and to evaluate model performance through internal and external validation. Distinct sets of metabolites were associated with flower colour and floral form, with limited overlap between traits. Predictive performance was consistently higher for colour than for floral form, indicating more structured metabolic signatures for chromatic traits. The selected predictors spanned multiple major chemical classes, supporting a systemic organisation of the metabolome rather than reliance on single biosynthetic pathways. Consistently high predictive accuracies were obtained, reaching approximately 87% for both flower colour and floral form, and remaining clearly above the corresponding no-information rates (≈ 43%). Together, these results demonstrate that leaf metabolomics can be used to robustly predict floral traits in Camellia and highlight the potential of predictive metabolomics as a tool for early phenotype inference, quality control and selection in long-lived ornamental species.