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Threefold increase in atmospheric-riverine compound heatwaves under climate change
Yu Zhou1,2, Yanxia Shen1,2, Wei Zhi1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
Nature Geoscience
|August 8, 2026
Summary
Compound heatwaves, combining atmospheric and river heat events, have tripled in frequency over four decades. These events significantly impact water temperature and dissolved oxygen, posing escalating threats to freshwater ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Record heatwaves disrupt global water, energy, and food systems.
- The co-occurrence of atmospheric and riverine heatwaves is under-explored.
- Understanding these compound events is crucial for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To characterize atmospheric-riverine compound heatwaves across 796 river basins in the USA and Central Europe.
- To analyze the trends and contributing factors of these compound heatwaves since the 1980s.
- To assess the impact of compound heatwaves on water quality and project future occurrences.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 796 river basins in the USA and Central Europe.
- Integration of water quality observations with a deep learning model.
- Statistical analysis of heatwave frequency, duration, intensity, and contributing factors (climatic, topographic, hydrological).
Main Results:
- Compound heatwaves have increased by approximately 0.40 events per decade since the 1980s, tripling in frequency.
- Riverine heatwaves have intensified significantly, outpacing atmospheric heatwave changes.
- Compound heatwaves amplify water temperature increases by 16% and decrease dissolved oxygen by 2.9% compared to isolated riverine heatwaves.
- High-elevation mountain rivers show amplified trends (+128% per decade).
Conclusions:
- Compound heatwaves are escalating threats to freshwater ecosystems.
- Climatic, topographic, and hydrological factors significantly control compound heatwave occurrences.
- Under high-emissions scenarios, nearly all riverine heatwaves may coincide with atmospheric heatwaves by 2100.
- Incorporating compound heatwave dynamics into water risk assessments is essential.
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