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From adaptation to overload: how climate risks affect public health?-evidence from China
Shuai Liang1, Huanhuan Jiang1, Peng Wang2
1School of Applied Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, China.
Frontiers in Public Health
|August 8, 2026
Summary
Climate risks significantly impact public health, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped relationship. Factors like digital finance and income modify this response, highlighting adaptive thresholds in climate-health resilience.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Economics
Background:
- Climate risks (CR), especially extreme weather, pose a significant threat to global public health (PH).
- Existing research often overlooks the nonlinear dynamics between climate factors and health outcomes, and the multidimensional influence of socio-economic variables.
- Understanding these complex interactions is crucial for developing effective public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the nonlinear relationship between climate risks and public health in China.
- To explore the moderating effects of socio-economic factors on the climate-health nexus.
- To identify adaptive thresholds and resilience mechanisms within the climate-health system.
Main Methods:
- Utilized panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011-2023).
- Employed ArcGIS and quantile methods for spatial-temporal visualization of CR and PH.
- Constructed fixed effect models with square terms and moderating effect models to analyze nonlinearities and heterogeneity.
Main Results:
- A significant inverted U-shaped relationship was found between climate risks and public health, indicating an initial adaptation followed by inhibition.
- Digital inclusive finance (DIF) and residents' income (RI) intensified this inverted U-shape, pushing the inflection point rightward (efficiency-enhanced adjustment).
- Energy structure optimization (ESO) moderated the relationship, making the curve gentler and shifting the inflection point leftward (risk-releasing regulation).
Conclusions:
- Confirmed an adaptive threshold in climate-health system resilience.
- Identified financial resilience, economic resources, and energy infrastructure as key moderating pathways.
- Highlighted the differential impacts of environmental regulations, green spaces, and green technological innovation on mitigating climate-related health impacts.
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