Widespread land-use change may be caused by adaptation to climate-induced yield reductions

Agriculture is at the center of the relationship between human societies and natural systems, acting as both a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and a sector highly sensitive to climate change. When climate change reduces agricultural yields, land-use change represents a key pathway through which human societies may adapt. Here, we coupled a climate-yield emulator with an integrated assessment model to quantify how adaptation to climate-induced yield losses reshapes the global land-use patterns. We found that adaptive responses to declining yields could substantially transform global land use. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, global cropland expands by approximately 1.2 million km² (about 8%), largely at the expense of forests, grasslands, and pastures. This expansion is nearly five times greater under the SSP5-unconstrained scenario and is accompanied by additional warming. Even when endogenous integrated assessment model (IAM)-based adaptations are combined with additional enhanced management practices and technological advancements, land-use change remains a plausible response to compensating for yield declines. These results reveal an underappreciated risk associated with agricultural adaptation to climate change and underscore the importance of limiting temperature rise to safeguard food security while avoiding large-scale conversion of natural land.