Control Priorities for Persistent Organic Pollutant Mixture Based on Neurodevelopmental Disorders

Area of Science:

• Environmental Chemistry
• Toxicology
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Long-term population exposure data for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are fragmented.
• Current chemical control strategies often lack biological relevance, focusing solely on exposure levels.
• Understanding the dynamic shifts in POPs exposure and associated risks is crucial for public health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To reconstruct long-term exposure trajectories for 91 POP mixtures using NHANES data.
• To integrate reconstructed exposure profiles into biological networks to assess relevance to neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs).
• To provide a dynamic framework for prioritizing POPs mixture control based on evolving exposure and biological relevance.

Main Methods:

• Utilized low-rank matrix completion and multitask temporal forecasting to reconstruct POPs exposure.
• Integrated reconstructed exposure data into multilayer "exposure-biology-disease" networks.
• Focused on neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) as an application scenario to evaluate chemical risk rankings over time.

Main Results:

• Reconstructed population-level POPs concentrations are projected to decline substantially (>80-95% by 2030-2040).
• Chemical risk rankings show temporal reorganization, with early relevance dominated by perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), shifting to other POPs like polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in low-exposure futures.
• PFASs initially dominated NDD relevance, but their contribution decreased by 2025, while PBDEs and PCBs increased.

Conclusions:

• A dynamic framework integrating long-term exposure reconstruction and network-informed relevance is proposed for prioritizing POPs mixture control.
• Conventional POPs have declined significantly post-Stockholm Convention.
• Increasing attention should be directed toward emerging pollutants and their potential health impacts, particularly NDDs.