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Bayesian-Estimated Vancomycin AUC24 as a Near-Term Renal Risk Signal after Therapeutic Drug Monitoring: A Multicenter
Tran Van Anh1,2, Bui Thi Tham1, Tran Thi Ngan1,2
1Faculty of Pharmacy, Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hai Phong, Viet Nam.
Bayesian-estimated vancomycin area under the curve (AUC) may signal near-term kidney risk, integrating drug exposure with changing renal function, rather than indicating a direct toxicity threshold.
Area of Science:
- Pharmacology
- Nephrology
- Clinical Pharmacy
Background:
- Vancomycin dosing increasingly uses area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)-guided strategies.
- The clinical significance of Bayesian-estimated AUC, especially with changing renal function, requires clarification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between Bayesian-estimated 24-hour vancomycin AUC (AUC24) and acute kidney injury (AKI).
- To determine if AUC24 serves as a standalone threshold for vancomycin toxicity.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective multicenter cohort study of 898 adult vancomycin monitoring episodes in Vietnam (2019-2025).
- AUC24 estimated using institutional Bayesian software (SmartDoseAI); pharmacokinetic cross-check with BestDose.
- Acute kidney injury (AKI) assessed within 48 hours of monitoring.
Main Results:
- 9.4% of episodes (84/898) developed AKI.
- Higher continuous AUC24 showed a modest association with AKI (OR 1.16; P=.023) in initial analysis.
- Association attenuated after excluding potential pre-existing AKI and no distinct nonlinear threshold was identified.
Conclusions:
- Bayesian-estimated AUC24 may function as a near-term renal risk indicator, reflecting integrated vancomycin exposure and renal clearance.
- AUC24 is likely more valuable as a dynamic risk signal than a fixed toxicity threshold.
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