A clinical nomogram for predicting drug-resistant epilepsy and its long-term persistence in children: a cohort study

Ohcheol Kwon1, Yun Sung Nam1, Hyun-Jin Kim1

  • 1Department of Pediatrics, Asan Medical Center Children's Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Seizure
|August 12, 2026
PubMed

Insights

A new nomogram helps predict drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) in children, identifying key factors like psychiatric disorders and seizure onset. This tool aids in early risk stratification and personalized treatment for pediatric epilepsy.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Neurology
  • Epileptology
  • Clinical Prediction Modeling

Background:

  • Drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) affects a significant portion of pediatric epilepsy cases.
  • Accurate prediction and understanding of DRE persistence are crucial for effective management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a clinical prediction nomogram for identifying pediatric patients at risk of DRE.
  • To identify predictors associated with the long-term persistence of DRE in children.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 4208 pediatric epilepsy patients (0-18 years).
  • Development of a nomogram using LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression.
  • Internal validation assessed via discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses.

Main Results:

  • 33.7% of patients developed DRE; the nomogram showed good predictive performance (validation AUC 0.778).
  • In patients with DRE and ≥5 years follow-up, 65.2% had persistent DRE.
  • Predictors of persistent DRE included psychiatric disorders, daily seizure frequency, early seizure onset, and perinatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

Conclusions:

  • The developed nomogram facilitates early risk stratification for pediatric DRE using routine clinical data.
  • Identifying distinct predictors of DRE persistence underscores the heterogeneity of the condition and supports tailored management approaches.
Abstract

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