Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling

The world is confronting an escalating crisis of burgeoning photovoltaic (PV) waste¹. However, the effectiveness and scalability of prevailing PV waste management approaches remain unclear owing to considerable heterogeneity across regions and over time. Here we develop a comprehensive framework to evaluate the economic and climate benefits of local versus outsourced recycling, covering mainstream technologies. Considering supply-side material constraints, global PV waste will reach 297-402 million tonnes by 2060, with middle-income regions such as China becoming major contributors after 2040. Notwithstanding anticipated technological advancements, the break-even point for global PV waste recycling remains more than a decade away. Combining region-specific recycling technologies with outsourced recycling strategies yields the maximal global net benefits, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 3.32 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent and generating cumulative net benefits of US$529.1-935.5 billion by 2060. However, outsourced recycling raises inequality concerns for low-income regions. Our results show that a well-designed declining-subsidy scheme effectively mitigates these inequalities, particularly in the early stages. We suggest that regionally adapted recycling strategies and international cooperation, with a focus on technology transfer and funding for recycling capacity in low-income regions, provide effective ways to achieve equitable and scalable PV waste circularity.