Spatiotemporal analysis of vegetation dynamics during 2016-2025 in relation to hydroclimatic variability, land use,...

Vegetation dynamics in human-modified agricultural landscapes are associated with the combined variability of hydroclimatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures, yet these relationships are rarely evaluated together within a unified seasonal framework. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Edirne, Türkiye, during 2016-2025 by integrating six complementary variables: evapotranspiration (ET), land surface temperature (LST), rainfall, built-up areas, cropland areas, and the global human modification index (gHM). The analysis was designed to identify seasonal and regional variations in vegetation activity and to examine the statistical relationships between NDVI and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic indicators. NDVI showed a recurrent seasonal pattern, with the highest seasonal mean in spring (0.54) and the lowest in autumn (0.35). Regionally, the southeast had the highest long-term NDVI mean (0.53), whereas the northwest had the lowest (0.44). Among the hydroclimatic variables, ET showed the strongest seasonal association with NDVI, particularly in spring and summer, with correlation coefficients of r = 0.788 and r = 0.861, respectively. LST showed a seasonally varying relationship with NDVI, whereas rainfall showed a weaker, direct monthly correspondence, as wetter periods were not synchronized with peak greenness. Among the anthropogenic indicators, cropland was the most seasonally dynamic land-use variable and showed a persistent positive association with gHM, especially in autumn (r = 0.763). The spatial gradient of gHM was also evident, with higher values in the northwest (0.72) and lower values in the southeast (0.51). PCA results indicated a seasonally structured multivariate pattern; the first two components explained 62.11% of the variance in spring (PC1 = 37.03%, PC2 = 25.08%) and 66.83% in summer (PC1 = 42.1%, PC2 = 24.73%). NDVI variability in Edirne was linked to the covariation of seasonal hydroclimatic conditions and spatially variable anthropogenic structures.