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Two-Time-Point Inflammatory Status Patterns and the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A Cohort Study Based on CHARLS
Yanxiang Luo1,2, Han Li2,3, Hongjian Gong2,3
1Peking University Fifth School of Clinical Medicine, Beijing 100730, China.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 13, 2026
Summary
Persistently high inflammation is linked to a greater risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). This study identified four inflammatory patterns, finding that a high-stable pattern significantly increased DM risk compared to a low-stable pattern.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Immunology
- Metabolic Diseases
Background:
- Chronic inflammation is a key factor in the development of diabetes mellitus (DM).
- Understanding temporal inflammatory patterns is crucial for predicting DM risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify distinct patterns of inflammatory status over time.
- To investigate the association between these patterns and the risk of developing incident DM.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).
- Calculated an inflammatory score using C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell (WBC) counts.
- Employed a longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (LTMLE) framework to analyze associations.
Main Results:
- Identified four inflammatory patterns: low-stable, high-stable, increasing, and decreasing.
- The high-stable inflammatory pattern showed a significant association with increased DM risk (RR=1.430, 95% CI: 1.204-1.698).
- Landmark analysis at Wave 4 showed imprecise but directionally positive estimates for the high-stable pattern.
Conclusions:
- A persistently elevated inflammatory score is significantly associated with a heightened risk of incident DM.
- These findings highlight the importance of sustained inflammation in DM pathogenesis.
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