Burden, Trends, and Future Projections of Multiple Myeloma in China from 1990 to 2023

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a malignant plasma cell disorder associated with substantial mortality and long-term disability. With rapid population aging in China, its disease burden may be increasing, yet comprehensive long-term assessments remain limited.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we evaluated trends in prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of MM in China from 1990 to 2023. Age-standardized rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate temporal trends.

Between 1990 and 2023, prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MM increased markedly in China, with consistent upward trends in age-standardized rates. The burden was concentrated among older adults and was higher in males than females. Decomposition analysis showed that epidemiological changes were the primary driver of increased DALYs and deaths. Forecasting analyses suggest that although age-standardized mortality and DALY rates may gradually decline, the absolute number of deaths is expected to continue rising.

The burden of MM in China has increased substantially over the past three decades and is projected to remain high. Strengthening early detection, risk-oriented prevention, and long-term management strategies is essential to mitigate future disease burden.