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Emerging Invasion Risks of Non-Native Urban Trees in Continental Europe Under a Changing Climate
Mihaela Britvec1, Marina Piria2,3, Ivana Vitasović-Kosić1
1Faculty of Agriculture University of Zagreb, Department of Agricultural Botany, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 13, 2026
Summary
Climate change may increase the invasiveness of non-native urban trees in Europe. A screening using the Terrestrial Plant Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (TPS-ISK) identified high-risk species needing monitoring and management.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Botany
Background:
- Non-native trees in urban green spaces pose a risk of becoming invasive.
- Climate change is predicted to enhance this risk by creating favorable conditions for restricted species.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of 34 non-native urban tree species in continental Europe.
- To evaluate their invasiveness under current and future climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Terrestrial Plant Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (TPS-ISK) for risk screening.
- Assessed 34 non-native urban tree species across current and projected climate scenarios.
Main Results:
- Under current conditions, 10 species were high risk, 23 medium risk, and one low risk.
- Future climate change may elevate 11 species to high risk, with seven being very high risk.
- Ailanthus altissima, Diospyros virginiana, and Quercus rubra were consistently high-risk species.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is likely to facilitate the establishment and spread of several cultivated urban tree species.
- This study is the first comprehensive TPS-ISK screening for non-native urban trees in mainland Europe.
- Identified priority species for early detection, monitoring, and management strategies.
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