Statistical Models Validate Environmental Stability, Body Size and Life History Strategies as Predictors of Maximum...

Maximal lifespan is one of the key life history traits, subject to variation and selection, with important implications for evolutionary and ecological strategies. Despite the keen interest in this topic and numerous studies on vertebrate lifespan and its drivers and correlates, there is little research on aquatic gastropods, for which information on life history and ecology is scarce. We used a dataset of 133 species, including the literature data on lifespan (the response variable) and 55 (explanatory) variables covering morphological, life history, ecological and biogeographical characteristics. We applied parametric regression models (generalised linear models, generalised additive models), comparative phylogenetic regression (Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares) and nonparametric machine learning regression analyses (random forests, regression trees) to examine relationships between longevity and the other variables. We found that both parametric and non-parametric models converged towards similar results. Our findings support life history theory and metabolic scaling predictions, indicating that iteroparous, large-sized species that occupy environmentally stable habitats exhibit extended longevity. Further research should include a wider range of potential drivers to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of longevity and test mechanistic ageing hypotheses.