Shelter Dog Census Changes Track Intakes but Resolve Slowly via Outcomes and Especially Adoptions

Area of Science:

• Animal Welfare Science
• Shelter Management
• Population Dynamics

Background:

• Animal shelter census, or in-care population, is dynamic.
• Imbalances between monthly intakes and outcomes cause census changes.
• These census shifts can influence future shelter operations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the relationship between monthly census changes and subsequent intakes/outcomes in US animal shelters.
• To differentiate dynamics between government-related (GRO) and non-government (NGO) sheltering organizations.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective observational study using monthly dog statistics (2022-2024) from Shelter Animals Count database.
• Two linear regression models: concurrent (single-month imbalance analysis) and cumulative (effect of past changes).

Main Results:

• Concurrent imbalances showed higher intake contributions than outcomes for both GRO and NGO.
• Past census increases were primarily resolved by higher outcomes (adoptions, noncommunity live/nonlive outcomes) rather than reduced intakes.
• Average census recovery times: 7.6 months for GRO, 5.2 months for NGO. Live release rates differed between organization types.

Conclusions:

• Shelter census perturbations are dampened by management efforts, not permanent.
• Findings challenge assumptions of fixed adoption/transfer capacities.
• Shelter dynamics involve complex feedback loops influencing population management.