Specifying wind gusts based on wind speed increments and forecasting gustiness

Area of Science:

• Meteorology and Atmospheric Science
• Oceanography
• Engineering (Applied Physics)

Background:

• Wind gusts pose significant risks to people and property, necessitating accurate forecasting.
• Existing methods may lack the sensitivity required for timely warnings.
• Understanding gust dynamics is key to developing predictive models.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel method for forecasting wind gustiness (number of gusts per time unit).
• To establish a correlation between gustiness and the variance of wind speed increments.
• To create a predictor for gust events exceeding specific thresholds.

Main Methods:

• Defined gusts as rapid wind speed changes exceeding application-specific thresholds.
• Analyzed measured offshore wind data to quantify gustiness-variance correlation.
• Modeled wind speed increment variance using an autoregressive process.
• Constructed a gustiness predictor based on the autoregressive model.

Main Results:

• Developed a gustiness forecasting method correlating gustiness with wind speed increment variance.
• Demonstrated the method's effectiveness in predicting rapid changes in wind-induced drag forces.
• Achieved specificity comparable to persistence models but with significantly improved sensitivity.

Conclusions:

• The proposed methodology for defining gusts and forecasting gustiness shows promise for real-world applications.
• The improved sensitivity of the forecasting method offers potential for enhanced safety and damage mitigation.
• Further research and development can refine this approach for high-quality wind gust forecasting.