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Related Experiment Videos

Forecasting: which type is for you?

G R Elwell

    The American Journal of Medical Technology
    |February 1, 1979
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Effective laboratory management requires accurate forecasting. This report details the Delphi Method for external forecasts and internal methods like judge/jury, time series, and regression models for better laboratory planning.

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    Area of Science:

    • Laboratory Management
    • Operations Research

    Background:

    • Efficient laboratory management relies heavily on accurate forecasting of both external and internal conditions.
    • Strategic planning is a critical function that is hampered without reliable predictive data.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To discuss the successful Delphi Method for external forecasting of technological events.
    • To cover internal forecasting methods including judge and jury, time series analysis, and regression models.
    • To provide descriptions, accuracy, applications, costs, and references for each forecasting method.

    Main Methods:

    • Delphi Method for external technological forecasting.
    • Judge and jury methods for internal forecasting.
    • Time series analysis for internal forecasting.

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  • Regression models for internal forecasting.

    • Main Results:

    • The Delphi Method is presented as a successful approach for external forecasting.
    • Various internal forecasting techniques are described with their respective applications and costs.
    • Information on the accuracy and detailed procedural references for each method is provided.

    Conclusions:

    • Accurate forecasting is essential for efficient laboratory planning and management.
    • A range of methods, both external (Delphi) and internal (judge/jury, time series, regression), are available to support laboratory forecasting needs.
    • Understanding the characteristics of each method allows for informed selection based on accuracy, cost, and application.