A mathematical model of diabetes dynamics in pregnancy

Diabetes Mellitus is a major metabolic disorder affecting over 800 million people worldwide, with significant health risks including cardiovascular diseases, kidney failure, and neuropathy. Among women, diabetes during pregnancy - both pre-existing and gestational - poses severe complications for maternal and fetal health. This study develops a comprehensive mathematical model capturing the dynamics of diabetes among women, emphasizing pregnancy-associated transitions. The total female population is divided into fertile and non-fertile groups, each further subdivided into eleven compartments representing different diabetic and pregnancy states. The model incorporates hereditary factors, social transmission, comorbidities, and lifestyle influences. Using a system of nonlinear differential equations, the work demonstrates positivity, boundedness, and quasi-steady-state (QSS) reduction, thereby simplifying the high-dimensional system while retaining essential pregnancy dynamics. This framework provides insight into how social interactions, lifestyle changes, and pregnancy contribute to diabetes progression, offering a foundation for targeted public health strategies to manage diabetes in women of reproductive age. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) analysis shows that equilibrium diabetes prevalence is controlled by demographic inflow, whereas pregnancy complications are driven by progression dynamics.