Shared inheritance reveals landscape of somatic and germline cancer risk in TP53

Pathogenic variants in TP53, the key tumor suppressor gene underlying Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), are among the best-established causes of inherited cancer predisposition. However, large-scale sequencing has revealed that many apparently pathogenic TP53 variants detected in blood are the result of somatic clonal expansions, complicating risk interpretation. Using blood-derived whole-exome data from 469,391 UK Biobank participants, we combined the variant allele fraction (VAF) with haplotype-sharing analysis to distinguish germline and somatic TP53 variants. Germline variants were concentrated at sites linked to partial loss of p53 function and lower disease penetrance, whereas classic LFS alleles appeared to be predominantly somatically acquired. Classic LFS alleles at high VAF conferred markedly increased risk of hematological malignancy but not solid tumors, indicating an important contribution from large TP53-mutant clonal expansions. The prevalence of somatic clonal expansion also correlated with missense variant pathogenicity, suggesting that somatic activity provides an informative in vivo proxy for functional impact. These results provide new insights into TP53-associated cancer risk at the population level, demonstrate that somatic rather than germline risk predominates in middle-aged healthy adults, and provide a scalable framework for variant classification in large-scale population genomics.