A Sector-Coupling Model to Evaluate the Role of Hydrogen in Low-Carbon Trucking

The global energy system must deeply decarbonize as soon as possible to avert the worst consequences of climate change, including the transportation sector, which accounts for 23% of global emissions. Several technological options have been proposed to decarbonize diesel-consuming heavy-duty vehicles, including hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and battery-electric trucks. This study models the newfound interdependency between zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and the electricity grid, in a sector-coupling generation expansion planning model, to achieve net-zero emissions in 2050. We demonstrate that when considering the electric grid impacts of zero-emission trucks, battery trucks offer the cost optimal approach, with up to 47% savings compared to the hydrogen alternative. We also show that current hydrogen price targets are too high to achieve decarbonization via hydrogen fuel-cell trucks; parity with batteries is only achieved when hydrogen prices for the consumer fall below $1/kg. We show that abatement costs are within the scope of current carbon pricing schemes, where diesel fuel prices must rise by 20-50¢/L to promote decarbonization of heavy-duty trucking for both BETs and HFCTs.