China's Low-Carbon Energy Transition Over the Past Two Decades: Experiences and Implications

With the rapid expansion of renewable energy, coal consumption in China briefly declined and then rebounded. Existing literature provides limited explanations for this dynamic pattern. This paper summarizes the experiences and implications of China's low-carbon energy transition by adopting the energy trilemma as an analytical perspective and examining the corresponding policy instruments across different stages. The results show that the energy transition reflects a phased process of trade-offs among economic development, energy security, and environmental sustainability. In the early stage, economic development was prioritized, with coal ensuring energy supply. As environmental constraints intensified, administrative measures were implemented to drive a temporary decline in coal consumption. Under the constraints of multiple objectives, China has adopted a gradual transition pathway that accelerates renewable energy development while facilitating the functional transformation of coal-fired power rather than simply phasing it out. From a governance perspective, China advances the transition through a coordinated policy framework that sets long-term direction by strategic planning, reinforces implementation with administrative measures, and gradually introduces market mechanisms to improve resource allocation. This study provides insights into China's low-carbon energy transition and offers policy implications for other developing economies facing similar energy dilemmas.