Quantifying the spatial relationship between urban land use and carbon emissions using remote sensing and GIS

The rapid increase in carbon emissions is one of the most important causes of global climate change. However, local governments can contribute significantly to climate change mitigation through spatial planning and emission reduction policies. Thus, this study aims to analyze spatial relationships between highly dense urban areas and carbon emissions by integrating carbon emission sources, carbon sink areas, and relevant spatial variables in Yıldırım District, Türkiye. Land use/land cover (LU/LC), population, transportation, traffic signalization, residential natural gas consumption, and forest data were used. Quantitative analyses including the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based normalized weighted overlay approach, Kernel density analysis, Ecosystem-Based Functional Forest Management Plans (ETFOB), and variable-based calculations were performed. Finally, three maps were produced: carbon sink areas, carbon emission sources, and total carbon emission map. The results showed that forest areas were identified as the dominant carbon sink component, although their sequestration capacity remained insufficient to offset emissions associated with urban development. In addition, residential natural gas consumption and transportation were identified as the most effective spatial variables influencing carbon emissions. The proposed spatial framework provides a practical approach for identifying urban carbon emission hotspots and carbon sink areas, supporting evidence-based urban planning and climate mitigation strategies. The study also contributes to understanding how urban spatial structure and ecological sink areas are spatially associated within an urban carbon assessment framework.