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Machine Learning-Based Risk Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Non-ST-Elevation Acute Coronary
Vyacheslav V Ryabov1,2, Anastasiia K Nesova1, Andrey A Vishnevskiy3
1Cardiology Research Institute, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, 111a Kievskya Street, 634012 Tomsk, Russian Federation, Tomsk, Tomsk Oblast, Russian Federation, 7 923-602-5410.
Background:
Despite advances in understanding and treating non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS), patients continue to experience high rates of adverse outcomes, particularly those with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, which remains a leading cause of cardiovascular mortality. Existing risk models may not fully reflect contemporary patient populations due to substantial changes in clinical profiles. Developing new machine learning (ML)-based risk calculators may improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality (IHM) at different stages of the diagnostic process, and ultimately improve patient outcomes.
Objective:
This study aimed to develop predictive models for IHM in patients with NSTE-ACS using ML methods and predictor sets obtained during the diagnostic process.
Methods:
This retrospective observational study included 1144 patients with NSTE-ACS admitted between 2019 and 2021. IHM occurred in 94 (8.1%) of 1144 patients. Predictive models were developed using multivariable logistic regression, Random Forest, XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), and CatBoost algorithms. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), area under the precision-recall curve, calibration metrics, and decision curve analysis.
Results:
A key feature of the developed models was their applicability at different stages of the diagnostic process, using predictors available at each specific stage. At admission, ML models achieved ROC-AUC values up to 0.93. After incorporating laboratory and echocardiographic data, predictive performance increased to ROC-AUC values of 0.94 to 0.95. The best-performing model demonstrated an ROC-AUC of 0.951 (95% CI 0.946-0.956), a sensitivity of 0.902 (95% CI 0.889-0.916), and a specificity of 0.891 (95% CI 0.886-0.896). The area under the precision-recall curve reached 0.685, and the Brier score was 0.0331, indicating good calibration. Random Forest models demonstrated greater clinical utility than the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score (P<.001). Shapley Additive Explanations analysis identified the most significant predictors of mortality risk, including Killip class of acute heart failure, age, Charlson comorbidity index, creatinine level, and hematocrit level.
Conclusions:
ML-based models enabled accurate prediction of IHM in patients with NSTE-ACS at different stages of the diagnostic process and may improve risk stratification and clinical decision-making in real-world practice.
