Mathematical modeling of silkworm-virus dynamics for sustainable sericulture using piezoelectric-based temperature...

Sericulture is an important socioeconomic sector in many developing countries; however, environmental temperature changes and Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus (NPV) epidemics significantly limit its output. A new nonlinear five compartmental mathematical model that integrates silkworm population dynamics, NPV transmission, environmental viral persistence, piezoelectric energy generation and temperature regulation is developed and analyzed in this work. Newtonian heat exchange controlled by piezoelectric-assisted thermal control, temperature-dependent viral transmission and mortality, Holling type II saturation in environmental virus accumulation and the logistic growth of healthy silkworms are all included in the model. Extensive analytical studies establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions, positivity and boundedness. Eigenvalue criteria and Jacobian analysis are used to determine local stability conditions and identify virus-free and endemic equilibrium points. The virus-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable under threshold conditions defined by fundamental reproduction number using a Lyapunov function. The main determinants of system behavior, according to sensitivity analysis, are infection rate, virus decay rate and temperature dependent mortality. According to numerical simulations, maintaining favorable thermal condition is associated with reduced NPV proliferation and improved silkworm survival, while suboptimal temperatures are associated with increased viral amplification and higher larval mortality. By using piezoelectric energy harvesting, rearing temperature may potentially be regulated, outbreak intensity may decrease and healthy silkworm persistence may improve under modeled conditions. In addition, three-dimensional phase trajectories illustrate the interdependent feedback between environmental regulatory mechanisms, viral load and host activity. The proposed framework connects epidemiological dynamics with temperature regulation based on renewable energy, may provide a theoretical basis for future studies on temperature-regulated and energy-assisted sericulture systems. This study presents a unified modeling approach that may support the development of more stable silk production systems in line with global sustainability goals by combining mathematical ecology, virology, and green energy technology.