Chagas-specific Death and Competing Risk of Mortality in Chile: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study, 2007-2021

Chagas disease (CD) in Chile has shifted toward a postvector-control, aging-cohort scenario in which chronic sequelae increasingly shape outcomes. We quantified Chagas-specific mortality and associated factors using competing-risks methods.

We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study of confirmed CD cases notified in Chile during 2007-2021, linked to mortality and hospital discharge records. Chagas-specific death was the primary outcome, with other-cause death as a competing event. We estimated cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), applied Gray's test, and fitted Fine-Gray models for subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs). Complementary cause-specific Cox models included hospitalization as time-fixed and time-varying markers of clinical severity. Models accounted for the national cohort structure and competing mortality.

Among 17 508 individuals, 261 (1.49%) died from CD and 1021 (5.83%) from other causes. Ten-year CIF was higher in men (2.66%) and increased with age, reaching 4.80% at 65-74 years and 8.89% at ≥75 years. Cumulative incidence functions was highest for chronic digestive disease (B57.3, 6.49%) and elevated for chronic cardiac disease (B57.2, 2.93%) compared with Z22.8 (1.47%; Gray P < .005). In adjusted Fine-Gray models, mortality was associated with each 10-year age increase (sHR 2.31), male sex (sHR 1.47), B57.2 (sHR 1.92), and B57.3 (sHR 3.36). Cause-specific Cox models showed a graded association between recurrent hospitalizations and Chagas-specific death (≥3 admissions: HR 83.94), consistent with advanced clinical deterioration.

Although Chagas-specific death was uncommon, it was concentrated among identifiable high-risk groups. Risk-stratified chronic care and structured follow-up should prioritize patients with organ involvement or recurrent hospitalization.