Ten-year estimates of cardiovascular disease mortality risk in Islamic Republic of Iran

Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death globally and a major public health challenge in Islamic Republic of Iran. Risk estimation can help identify high-risk groups and guide prevention.

To estimate the cardiovascular disease mortality risk over a 10-year period among adults aged 30-70 years in Yazd Province, Islamic Republic of Iran.

In 2023, we obtained health data for 2090 adults (809 men and 1281 women) aged 30-70 years in Yazd Province, Islamic Republic of Iran, from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. We estimated the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality, using the Framingham risk model, and used independent t test and chi-square test to assess the differences between groups. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Men had higher systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence than women, while women had higher total cholesterol (P < 0.001). Men had higher estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease mortality risk than women. Low risk was more common among women than men (95.9% versus 58.6%). Moderate risk was more common among men than among women (29.6% versus 3.3%), as was high risk (11.8% versus 0.8%).

The observed differences in cardiovascular disease mortality risk factors among the study population indicate the need for preventive measures tailored to the men and women groups. Prevention should focus on smoking, blood pressure control and cholesterol management.