Risk Factors for Progression to Chronicity or Recurrent Episodes in Pediatric Acute Urticaria: A 1-Year Cohort Study

Acute urticaria (AU) is common and often considered self-limiting in children; however, a subset may progress to chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or develop recurrent AU. Clinical characteristics associated with these unfavorable outcomes remain poorly characterized.

In this single-center retrospective cohort study, 475 children (<18 years) with AU presenting to dermatology settings were included. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from electronic medical records. Personal and family histories of atopy were confirmed, and 1-year outcomes were assessed via structured telephone follow-up. Independent risk factors were identified using Firth penalized multivariable logistic regression.

Follow-up was completed for 358 of 475 (75.4%) patients. Median age was 4.25 years, with 51% being male. At 1 year, 50 patients (14.0%) progressed to CSU and 37 patients (10.3%) experienced recurrent AU. Firth penalized multivariable analysis identified non-first-episode presentation (CSU: aOR 7.89, 95% CI 3.54-17.92; recurrent AU: aOR 6.73, 95% CI 2.57-17.31) and family history of CSU (CSU: aOR 4.35, 95% CI 1.27-13.65; recurrent AU: aOR 8.85, 95% CI 2.76-27.19) as independent predictors of both adverse outcomes. Family history of asthma was associated with CSU progression (aOR 32.26, 95% CI 1.67-477.76), and family history of chronic inducible urticaria was associated with recurrent AU (aOR 9.07, 95% CI 2.02-40.99); however, these estimates were imprecise because of small exposed case numbers. Notably, systemic corticosteroid use was not independently associated with either adverse outcome.

Recurrent AU, in addition to CSU progression, is an important 1-year outcome after pediatric AU. Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are readily ascertainable predictors that enable early risk stratification and follow-up. The single-center retrospective design and loss to follow-up should be considered when interpreting the generalizability of these findings.