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Published on: August 7, 2017
Risk Factors for Progression to Chronicity or Recurrent Episodes in Pediatric Acute Urticaria: A 1-Year Cohort Study
Yu He1, Wanshu Liu1, Mei Long1
1Department of Dermatology, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Children and Adolescents' Health and Diseases, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Child Infection and Immunity, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.
Insights
Pediatric acute urticaria (AU) can lead to chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or recurrent AU. Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are key predictors for these outcomes, aiding early risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric dermatology
- Allergy and immunology
- Clinical epidemiology
Background:
- Acute urticaria (AU) is common in children but can be persistent.
- A subset of pediatric AU cases may evolve into chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or recurrent AU.
- Predictors for these unfavorable outcomes in pediatric AU are not well-defined.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with unfavorable outcomes in children with AU.
- To assess the progression to CSU and recurrence of AU within one year.
- To enable early risk stratification for pediatric AU patients.
Main Methods:
- Single-center retrospective cohort study of 475 children (<18 years) with AU.
- Data extraction included demographics, clinical history, and laboratory findings.
- One-year outcomes (CSU progression, recurrent AU) assessed via telephone follow-up; risk factors identified using Firth penalized logistic regression.
Main Results:
- Of 358 children followed for one year, 14.0% progressed to CSU and 10.3% experienced recurrent AU.
- Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU were significant predictors for both CSU progression and recurrent AU.
- Family history of asthma and chronic inducible urticaria were also associated with specific adverse outcomes, though with imprecise estimates.
Conclusions:
- Recurrent AU and CSU progression are significant one-year outcomes following pediatric AU.
- Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are valuable, easily obtainable predictors for risk stratification.
- Findings should be interpreted considering the study's single-center retrospective design and potential follow-up bias.
Background:
Acute urticaria (AU) is common and often considered self-limiting in children; however, a subset may progress to chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or develop recurrent AU. Clinical characteristics associated with these unfavorable outcomes remain poorly characterized.
Methods:
In this single-center retrospective cohort study, 475 children (<18 years) with AU presenting to dermatology settings were included. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from electronic medical records. Personal and family histories of atopy were confirmed, and 1-year outcomes were assessed via structured telephone follow-up. Independent risk factors were identified using Firth penalized multivariable logistic regression.
Results:
Follow-up was completed for 358 of 475 (75.4%) patients. Median age was 4.25 years, with 51% being male. At 1 year, 50 patients (14.0%) progressed to CSU and 37 patients (10.3%) experienced recurrent AU. Firth penalized multivariable analysis identified non-first-episode presentation (CSU: aOR 7.89, 95% CI 3.54-17.92; recurrent AU: aOR 6.73, 95% CI 2.57-17.31) and family history of CSU (CSU: aOR 4.35, 95% CI 1.27-13.65; recurrent AU: aOR 8.85, 95% CI 2.76-27.19) as independent predictors of both adverse outcomes. Family history of asthma was associated with CSU progression (aOR 32.26, 95% CI 1.67-477.76), and family history of chronic inducible urticaria was associated with recurrent AU (aOR 9.07, 95% CI 2.02-40.99); however, these estimates were imprecise because of small exposed case numbers. Notably, systemic corticosteroid use was not independently associated with either adverse outcome.
Conclusion:
Recurrent AU, in addition to CSU progression, is an important 1-year outcome after pediatric AU. Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are readily ascertainable predictors that enable early risk stratification and follow-up. The single-center retrospective design and loss to follow-up should be considered when interpreting the generalizability of these findings.
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