Risk Factors for Progression to Chronicity or Recurrent Episodes in Pediatric Acute Urticaria: A 1-Year Cohort Study

Yu He1, Wanshu Liu1, Mei Long1

  • 1Department of Dermatology, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Children and Adolescents' Health and Diseases, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Child Infection and Immunity, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.

Insights

Pediatric acute urticaria (AU) can lead to chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or recurrent AU. Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are key predictors for these outcomes, aiding early risk assessment.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric dermatology
  • Allergy and immunology
  • Clinical epidemiology

Background:

  • Acute urticaria (AU) is common in children but can be persistent.
  • A subset of pediatric AU cases may evolve into chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) or recurrent AU.
  • Predictors for these unfavorable outcomes in pediatric AU are not well-defined.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with unfavorable outcomes in children with AU.
  • To assess the progression to CSU and recurrence of AU within one year.
  • To enable early risk stratification for pediatric AU patients.

Main Methods:

  • Single-center retrospective cohort study of 475 children (<18 years) with AU.
  • Data extraction included demographics, clinical history, and laboratory findings.
  • One-year outcomes (CSU progression, recurrent AU) assessed via telephone follow-up; risk factors identified using Firth penalized logistic regression.

Main Results:

  • Of 358 children followed for one year, 14.0% progressed to CSU and 10.3% experienced recurrent AU.
  • Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU were significant predictors for both CSU progression and recurrent AU.
  • Family history of asthma and chronic inducible urticaria were also associated with specific adverse outcomes, though with imprecise estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Recurrent AU and CSU progression are significant one-year outcomes following pediatric AU.
  • Non-first-episode AU and family history of CSU are valuable, easily obtainable predictors for risk stratification.
  • Findings should be interpreted considering the study's single-center retrospective design and potential follow-up bias.
Abstract

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