Exceeding Intended Intoxication Predicts Lower Drinking at the Next Event Through Reduced Intoxication Intentions

Social learning theory posits that direct experience shapes future cognition and behavior. Yet, it remains unclear how drinking experiences from one event influence intentions and behavior of the next drinking event. Exceeding intended levels of intoxication may motivate self-correction or adjustment of future intentions and behavior. However, this process may depend on positive or negative consequences experienced. Therefore, the current study examined whether exceeding intended intoxication and its associated consequences during a given drinking episode predicted intoxication intentions and drinking behavior of the next episode.

Individuals engaging in high-intensity drinking (N=202) reported their intoxication intentions, drinking quantity, and positive and negative consequences experienced for 28 consecutive days via ecological momentary assessment.

Exceeding intoxication intentions on a given event predicted decreases in next-event intentions, which in turn predicted drinking behavior. Thus, there was an indirect effect of exceeding intoxication intentions on reduced next-event drinking operating through dampened next-event intoxication intentions. Relations remained after controlling for first-event intoxication intention levels alongside whether intentions were exceeded and were robust to several sensitivity analyses including additional covariates and novel methods of analysis. However, neither positive nor negative consequences predicted next-event intentions/drinking at the day-level nor moderated the effect of exceeding intoxication intentions.

Exceeding intended intoxication appeared to lower next-event intentions, and drinking by proxy, highlighting a potential mechanism for self-correction in future intentions and behavior. Just-in-time interventions may benefit from leveraging past drinking experiences to shape subsequent intentions and behavior.