Analysis and Prediction Study on the Burden of Drug Use Disorders in China from 1990 to 2023: A Systematic Analysis...

Drug use disorders, including amphetamine use disorder (AMD), cocaine use disorder (COD), cannabis use disorder (CAD), opioid use disorder (OPD), and other drug use disorder (OTD), have become a serious global public health issue. However, there are limited systematic reviews and studies on drug use disorders in China.

The Joinpoint regression method was used to comprehensively evaluate the changes in the burden of drug use disorders in China from 1990 to 2023. The systematic analysis was conducted by stratifying by gender and age group, and the future burden of drug use disorders in China was predicted based on the difference autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA).

In 2023, the prevalence of AMD, COD, CAD, OPD, and OTD were 218.45, 162.13, 4.22, 109.27, and 21.31 per 100,000 in China, respectively. From 1990 to 2023, the burden of AMD, COD, OPD, and OTD in China all showed a downward trend, while the burden of CAD remained relatively stable. Additionally, from 1990 to 2023, the burden of AMD, COD, and CAD among Chinese males was significantly higher than that among females, while the gender differences in the burden of OPD and OTD varied in different periods. In terms of age stratification, the disease burden of different drug use disorders varies significantly among different age groups. Moreover, the prevalence and DALYs rate of drug use disorders decreased with increasing age. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the proportions of OPD and AMD are constantly increasing among the elderly. The prediction results indicate that in the next 15 years, the disease burden of AMD, COD, OPD, and OTD in China will further decrease, while the disease burden of CAD will remain relatively stable.

The disease burden of drug use disorders in China remains significant, and there are notable differences among different genders and age groups. In the future, more targeted prevention measures should be developed based on the current situation and the characteristics of gender and age stratification, in order to effectively reduce the disease burden of corresponding drug use disorders.