Risk assessment of Panonychus ulmi to global temperate fruit production under climate change

Climate change is reshaping pest distributions, threatening global fruit production. We present a climate-informed risk assessment for the European red mite, Panonychus ulmi, by integrating its habitat suitability predictions with host crop distributions. Our optimized model identified the mean temperature of the coldest quarter as the primary predictor, highlighting its critical role in P. ulmi overwintering survival. We found that 72.4% of temperate fruit crops are planted in highly suitable habitats for P. ulmi. By the 2070s, this at-risk area is projected to expand to 74.8% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We identified pronounced regional heterogeneity: affected orchard proportions are projected to expand greatly in Argentina (from 8.3% to 41.1%) and the USA (from 54.4% to 61.3%), while remaining persistently high in the European Union (> 98%) and China (> 80%), accompanied by localized northward shifts. In contrast, we found that warming winters that disrupt diapause may reduce the suitable areas in India (from 48.5% to 36.5%). These contrasting patterns require region-specific management strategies: areas where the pest is expanding should focus on early warning and quarantine, while regions that remain highly suitable should strengthen integrated pest management to address increased generations and rising pesticide resistance.